Many people with obesity can achieve negative energy balance and successful weight loss through various diet interventions. However, there is significant inter-individual variation in the weight loss response within any dietary strategy. Evidence-based diet strategies lead to weight loss for some, while for others, the same diet approach could result in trivial weight loss or even weight gain. This article explores the factors that predict weight loss success, with a focus on the LSU Weight Loss Predictor and related research.
Understanding Inter-Individual Variation in Weight Loss
Within any dietary strategy, there is significant inter-individual variation in the weight loss response. This prompts the underlying research question: what factors predict that a given diet strategy will be efficacious for some, but not for others? It's crucial to understand why some individuals experience significant weight loss with a particular diet, while others see minimal or no results. This variation highlights the need for personalized approaches to weight loss.
LSU Weight Loss Predictor: An Overview
The Pennington Biomedical Research Center's Weight Loss Predictor out of Louisiana State University (LSU) is one of the validated mathematical models that take into account the dynamic changes that occur when you cut calories, such as the metabolic slowdown. The LSU Weight Loss Predictor, however, doesn’t allow you to tweak physical activity, but its advantage is that you don’t have to choose a goal or time frame. The LSU model appears to overestimate the drop in physical activity.
Factors Influencing Weight Loss Success
Completion of the Intervention
Regardless of diet type, the most robust predictor of weight loss success was completion of the intervention, accounting for 20-30% of the variance. Factors predicting diet intervention completion were age, physical activity level, blood leptin level, blood pressure, and the amount of weight loss occurring.
Diet-Specific Predictors
A combination of physiological, psychological, behavioral, and dietary factors was evaluated for each diet study.For the low-carbohydrate group, race, body fat percentage, and fasting glucose at baseline were the most significant predictors (p < 0.05). For the low-fat group, income, leptin, education, low-density lipoprotein, and dietary adherence at baseline were the most significant predictors (p < 0.05). For the low-calorie group, age, eating behavior, total sugar consumption, and leptin at baseline (p < 0.05) were the most significant predictors.
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Cardiometabolic Risk Factor Reduction
Differences by diet type in cardiometabolic risk factor reduction were identified with LOW CHO decreasing glycemia/insulinemia factors, LOW FAT decreasing lipidemia factors, and LOW KCAL decreasing inflammatory factors.
Mathematical Models and Online Calculators
If the “3500 calories per pound” weight loss rule is bunk, what’s the alternative? There are validated mathematical models that take into account the dynamic changes that occur when you cut calories, such as the metabolic slowdown, and they’ve been turned into free online calculators that you can use to make personalized estimates. There’s the Body Weight Planner from the National Institutes of Health. The NIH Body Weight Planner has been found to be more accurate, since the LSU model appears to overestimate the drop in physical activity, but they both have their own pluses and minuses. The Body Weight Planner tells you how many calories you need to restrict and/or how much more exercise you need to do to achieve a specific weight loss goal by a specific date. If you click on the “Switch to Expert Mode” button you can get a graph and exportable chart showing your day-to-day weight loss trajectory. So, if you’re a middle-aged, sedentary average height woman obese at 175 pounds who wants to be closer to her ideal weight within a year, 2,000 calories a day would prevent future weight gain, about 1,400 calories a day would bring your weight down like this, and then you could maintain that lower weight at 1,700 calories a day.
The 10-Calorie Rule: A Simple Guideline
Is there any easy rule of thumb you can use? Yes. Every permanent 10-calorie drop in daily intake will eventually lead to about one pound of weight loss, though it takes about a year to achieve half the total weight change, and about three years to completely settle into the new weight. So, cutting 500 calories a day can cause the 50-pound weight loss predicted by the 3,500 calorie rule-but that’s the total weight loss at which you plateau, not an annual drop, and it takes about three years to get there. A 500-calorie deficit would be expected to cause about a 25-pound weight loss the first year, and then an additional 25 over years two and three.
The Impact of Portion Control on Appetite
If you’re eating the same diet that led to the original weight problem, but just in smaller servings, you should expect your appetite to rev up about 45 calories per pound lost. So, if you were cutting 500 calories a day through portion control alone, before you were down even a dozen pounds, you’d feel so famished that you’d be driven to eat 500 calories more a day, and your weight loss could vanish. So, to get that one pound off, instead of just 10 calories less per day using the 10 calories per pound rule, you’d have to eat 10 calories less on top of the 45 less to account for the revving of your appetite, so, 45 +10 = 55. So, just changing diet quantity and not quality, it takes 55 calories less per day to lose a pound. So, that 500-calorie daily deficit would only net you about a 9-pound weight loss over time, instead of 50.
When using portion control to reduce calorie intake, it’s important to account for an increase in appetite as you lose weight. To lose one pound of weight, you might need to reduce your daily calorie intake by about 55 calories instead of just 10, which is a common pitfall when relying solely on portion control for weight loss. You may lose a pound of fat by skipping just 10 calories a day or as many as 55, depending on whether you’re improving food quality or restricting food quantity.
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Research on Diet Interventions and Predictors
Several different factors were identified that account for the inter-individual variance in weight loss success.Weight loss over 12-16 weeks averaging −5.1 ± 4.0 kg from baseline weight, p < 0.001, was not significantly different among diet types.
Factors Influencing Diet Intervention Completion
Factors that predict diet intervention completion were age, physical activity level, blood leptin level, blood pressure, and the amount of weight loss occurring.
Other Considerations
Disclaimer
This information is for use in adults defined as individuals 18 years of age or older and not by younger people, or pregnant or breastfeeding women. This information is not intended to provide medical advice. A health care provider who has examined you and knows your medical history is the best person to diagnose and treat your health problem.
NIH's Role
(NIDDK), part of the National Institutes of Health. NIDDK translates and disseminates research findings to increase knowledge and understanding about health and disease among patients, health professionals, and the public.
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