The St. Louis Cardinals' acquisition of Lance Lynn has sparked considerable debate. While some view it as a questionable move, considering Lynn's recent performance, a closer look reveals a strategic rationale behind the decision. This article delves into the multifaceted aspects of Lynn's career, his potential role with the Cardinals, and the dietary and training regimens that underpin his athletic performance.
Rationale Behind the Cardinals' Acquisition
The Cardinals needed three starting pitchers heading into the offseason, and the signing of Lynn addresses one of those needs by adding stability to the pitching staff. With Lynn and Miles Mikolas, the Cardinals now possess a reliable pair of innings eaters, providing a solid foundation for the rotation, especially when injuries inevitably occur. This allows the team to pursue pitchers with higher upside, such as Tyler Glasnow or Blake Snell, without the fear of the rotation collapsing if those pitchers get hurt.
The presence of durable starters like Lynn gives the Cardinals the freedom to take chances on pitchers who may not throw a ton of innings but can be dominant on the mound. The signing of Lynn doesn’t necessarily mean the Cardinals are aiming low and shooting for 3 mid-to-back-end starters. The Cardinals want the innings that Lynn can provide. There is not a chance in the world that Lynn is the second best starter brought in this offseason.
A Deep Dive into Lynn's Performance
While Lynn's 2023 season was statistically his worst, certain underlying metrics suggest potential for a bounce-back. His 15.6% K-BB% (strikeout-walk percentage) was better than the league average, indicating his ability to miss bats and limit free passes. His 23.6% strikeout rate is a solid figure for an innings eater.
However, his home run rate was an absurd 2.16 HR/9 in 2023. That’s the second highest HR/9 this century, behind only Jose Lima’s 2000 season (2.20 HR). That’s why he fell off a cliff this year. His numbers would look a whole lot better with a bad home run rate instead of a horrific one but that’s not what happened. He got absolutely shelled.
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One possible explanation for the inflated home run rate is batted ball variance. An analysis of players with comparable HR/FB (home run to fly ball) rates since 2010 reveals that the vast majority experienced an improved HR/FB rate the following season. Assuming Lynn maintains his fly ball rate and inning count, a normalized HR/FB rate could result in a more respectable FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), making him a serviceable fifth starter.
Evolution of Lynn's Pitching Arsenal
Lynn has long been known for his athletic tenacity. Lynn primarily relies on his fastball, cutter, and sinker. However, his fastball velocity has declined in recent years, from 94 mph in 2021 to 92.4 mph in 2023. The interesting thing to me is that while Lynn’s velocity has continued to tick lower, he was actually a solid pitcher in 2022 after losing more than a tick off his fastball. So while velocity decline is always concerning, and inevitable with older pitchers, it’s not outside Lynn’s range of outcomes to get back to something close to his 2022 performance.
Interestingly, his cutter has maintained its velocity, even adding more ride and cut in 2023. This suggests that Lynn could benefit from leaning more heavily on his cutter in 2024.
A key adjustment Lynn could make is to avoid throwing his four-seam fastball inside to right-handed hitters, as this has proven to be ineffective. The 36-year-old has generally tried to keep the ball on the outer third, but he still has room to grow when it comes to fastball location.
His sinker also performs better when thrown outside and kept down. The problem is that with the decline of his fastballs (four-seamer and sinker), there’s now less margin for error. So Lynn doesn’t just need to focus on the outer third of the plate, he pretty much needs to not miss it.
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To counter this, Lynn could use his cutter to attack hitters on the hands, establishing a presence on the inner third of the plate. The pitch hasn’t lost any velocity so it seems like the pitch best suited to attack hitters on the hands. He doesn’t need to do it exclusively, but it should be the pitch he uses to counter all of the outer third fastballs.
Lynn's Drive and Competitive Spirit
Lance Lynn’s athletic drive and competitive spirit have been evident throughout his life. Growing up with an older brother and a supportive father, he learned to be competitive and take care of himself. He was always playing with the older kids because he had to and I was bigger. I had to learn to compete and I enjoyed winning so it just kind of kept going.
His high school coach, Pat O’Neil, instilled in him valuable life lessons, and the two remain close to this day. Since 12 or 13, Lynn has gone to Jay Lehr for pitching instruction and made the trek over from Marion, Ill., to with him at Pro X Athlete Development in Westfield, Ind., before attending Monday’s national championship football game in Indianapolis. Sean Cochran has been Lynn's strength coach since after the 2018 season.
Lynn appreciates the relationship he’s built with White Sox pitching coach Ethan Katz. Lynn’s three primary pitches are a four-seam fastball, cutter and sinker. The slot has served him well. I’ve been able to use it to create a good angle of attacking hitters. It’s hard for them to make good contact. There’s a lot of deception and hitters don’t love it.
The Importance of Diet and Nutrition
In recent years, Lynn has made significant strides in improving his diet and nutrition. This transformation was spurred by a realization that unhealthy eating habits were not only detrimental to his baseball career but also to his overall well-being.
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Chef Simon Lusky played a pivotal role in guiding Lynn towards healthier food choices. Lusky taught Lynn what to look for on the back of the box, and all the way to how to prepare it. The Cardinals organization had just begun a groundbreaking endeavor. In 2012 the club hired Lusky to prepare healthy food. With a team effort from the medical staff, clubhouse staff, strength staff and coaches, food has become a source of fuel for the players instead of empty calories.
Lusky emphasized the importance of lean proteins, green vegetables, and clean carbohydrates, while discouraging processed foods and excessive sugars. Now, the clubhouse walls are lined with dispensers of all different kinds of nuts. The most popular in-game snack is a protein bar homemade by a childhood friend of St. Louis Rams quarterback Sam Bradford. The team focuses on nutrient-dense foods with a lot of good calories. This helps their muscles and their recovery time. Fruit is also always available. Besides healthy snacks, the meal he prepares for the club every home game consists of lean proteins like chicken breast and turkey, but no fried meats. The biggest thing I do as a chef is I vary the protein.
This dietary overhaul has had a profound impact on Lynn's physical condition and performance, enabling him to maintain his strength and energy levels throughout the season.