Kentucky's political landscape is continuously evolving, presenting both challenges and opportunities for Democrats and Republicans alike. Examining recent election results, particularly the 2015 gubernatorial race, provides valuable insights into the state's political dynamics and potential future trends. Award-winning journalist Renee Shaw moderates comprehensive discussions with lawmakers, stakeholders, and policy leaders on KET's weeknight public affairs program Kentucky Edition, the signature public policy discussion series Kentucky Tonight, the weekly interview series Connections, Election coverage and KET Forums. Kentucky Tonight programs are available on KET.org and via podcast (iTunes or Android) after the broadcast. This article delves into various aspects of Kentucky elections, including the surprising outcome of the 2015 gubernatorial race, the influence of the Tea Party, challenges faced by Democratic candidates, polling inaccuracies, voter turnout issues and key issues shaping senatorial campaigns.
The Unexpected Turn in the 2015 Gubernatorial Race
In the 2015 Kentucky governor's race, Republican Matt Bevin secured a victory over Democrat Jack Conway, despite polling data suggesting a close race or even a Conway lead. All the polling in the Kentucky governor’s race showed Democrat Jack Conway even with or ahead of Republican Matt Bevin. Conway also outspent Bevin on political commercials. The final outcome, however, saw Bevin winning by a significant nine-point margin. This outcome defied expectations and prompted analysis of the factors that contributed to Bevin's success.
The Tea Party's Influence
The Tea Party movement played a significant role in Bevin's victory. According to John Heyrman of Berea College, the Tea Party wing of the GOP deserves significant credit for Bevin’s victory. Despite a generally older base among Tea Party voters, Heyrman says their organization spans a range of generations. He says Sen. The Tea Party's strong organization and voter turnout proved crucial in bolstering Bevin's support. However, Bruce Hicks of the University of the Cumberlands says Bevin will also have to navigate the schism between the Tea Partiers and the traditional Republicans he may have alienated during the campaign.
Challenges for Kentucky Democrats
As Kentucky leans increasingly Republican, Democratic candidates face considerable challenges in statewide elections. Michael Hail of Morehead State University emphasizes the need for Democrats to develop a distinct brand that resonates with Kentucky voters while remaining more conservative than the national Democratic Party. “The elephant in the room for the Democrats is how are they going to develop a distinct brand for Kentucky Democrats that’s more conservative than the brand for the national Democratic Party,” says Michael Hail. Hail says Democrats will also need to perform better with urban voters, many of whom tend to be more moderate, to counterbalance turnout among conservative voters in rural areas. Social issues, such as same-sex marriage, further complicate the political landscape for Democrats. According to Anne Cizmar of Eastern Kentucky University. “A lot of Democrats applauded that decision,” Cizmar says.
The Unreliability of Polling
The 2015 election highlighted the increasing unreliability of polling methods. Polling conducted during the campaign by Survey USA, Mason Dixon Research, and Western Kentucky University all showed Conway maintaining a slight lead over Bevin. Even an internal Republican poll released days before the election had Conway and Bevin tied. The professors point to several problems with current polling methods. John Heyrman of Berea College notes that lower response rates make it difficult for pollsters to obtain a representative sample of likely voters. “This narrative developed that [read] ‘Why isn’t Mr. Bevin doing better, why isn’t he campaigning harder, why isn’t he spending more money… why can’t he bring the Republican Party together?’” Hicks says. These inaccuracies underscore the need for caution when interpreting polling data and the importance of focusing on voter engagement and mobilization efforts.
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Voter Turnout and Apathy
Low voter turnout remains a persistent problem in Kentucky elections. Only about 31 percent of registered voters showed up at the polls last week. Anne Cizmar of EKU notes mixed results nationwide regarding the effectiveness of Election Day registration in boosting turnout. Michael Hail of Morehead State says people still don’t participate despite many efforts over the years to make voting easier. “People need to care more and take more seriously their role in the political process, and care about the issues the candidates are talking about,” Hail says. Heyrman disagrees with that point, saying that Americans vote less because of our balloting rules, not because the electorate is more apathetic. Addressing low turnout requires a multifaceted approach, including voter education, registration drives, and efforts to make voting more accessible.
Key Issues Shaping Senatorial Campaigns
Kentucky senatorial campaigns are often shaped by critical issues such as healthcare, economic development, and social values. In a recent senatorial race, candidates debated the federal government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, with differing views on mask mandates, business shutdowns, and economic relief measures. McGrath served as a Marine Corps fighter pilot and weapons system operator deployed in the Middle East and Asia. Sen. McGrath gives the federal government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic an F grade. The Democrat says she supports universal masking, national testing and contact tracing protocols, immediate relief for state and local governments as well as small businesses, an extension of unemployment benefits, and health care coverage for those lacking insurance. Barron says President Trump has done the best job he could given the information he had at the time. The president told journalist Bob Woodward that he didn’t want to panic the American public by disclosing how virulent the virus is. The Libertarian says wearing masks should be a personal choice not a government mandate. Nor should the government require people to take a vaccine when it becomes available, he says. Barron is also critical of the shutdown of some businesses ordered by Gov. Candidates also expressed concerns about the influence of money in politics and the need for campaign finance reform. Both candidates are highly critical of the current campaign finance system, which they say McConnell created through legislation and court cases like Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission.
Economic Development and Agriculture
Economic development and agriculture are also central to Kentucky's political discourse. Candidates often address the loss of coal industry jobs, the struggles of family farms, and the need for investment in infrastructure, healthcare, and education. McGrath says Kentucky has lost thousands of family farms during McConnell’s tenure. On the loss of coal industry jobs, McGrath says that’s a result of increased automation in mining and cheaper natural gas and renewable energy supplies. “We have to plan for the future and that means investment in infrastructure, investment in health care, investment in education for those areas,” says McGrath. Barron says he would go to Washington to fight for small farmers. “I am going to promote regenerative agriculture all the way across the board, and hemp is one of the key components of that,” says Barron. “I tell my uber-conservative friends that the climate change movement… is coming whether they want it or not.
Renee Shaw's Contributions to Kentucky Politics
Renee Shaw, Director of Public Affairs and Moderator at KET, plays a vital role in shaping political discourse in Kentucky. Since 2001, Renee has been the producing force behind KET’s legislative coverage that has been recognized by the Kentucky Associated Press and the National Educational Telecommunications Association. Through her work on programs like Kentucky Tonight and Kentucky Edition, Shaw provides a platform for in-depth discussions with lawmakers, stakeholders, and policy leaders. This weekly program features comprehensive discussions with lawmakers, stakeholders and policy leaders that are moderated by award-winning journalist Renee Shaw. Her commitment to covering critical issues, from mental health and opioid addiction to criminal justice reform, has earned her numerous accolades, including multiple regional Emmy awards and induction into the Silver Circle of the NATAS. In 2023, she was inducted into the Silver Circle of the NATAS, one of the industry’s highest honors recognizing television professionals with distinguished service in broadcast journalism for 25 years or more.
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